May 24, 2012

It's the most wonderful time of the year: Draft Season 2012

Happy holidays, everyone! The threes are falling, the crowds are roaring and the basement dwelling teams are in their beds dreaming of next season. The NBA Playoffs are here once again and things are heating up quickly. With the first rounds resulting in the usual advancing of the top seed (apart from a close Memphis/Clippers game seven, and an untimely injury for Chicago), the second round has left us with four series of established playoff veterans vs. up-and-coming playoff newcomers.

Boston, Miami, San Antonio and the Lakers are all riddled with playoff experience; players like Paul Pierce, Dwyane Wade, Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant are trying to hoist the trophy once more before Father Time catches up, while the newcomers clock in with Philadelphia, Indiana, the Clippers, and the slightly experienced Thunder, with Andre Iguodala, Danny Granger, Chris Paul, and Kevin Durant trying to get their hands on the trophy for the first time.

Now most NBA fans have these months circled on their calendars and start counting the days down until the finals, and rightfully so. But amidst all the actual basketball games, a more interesting part of the season arises for all the fans of the teams without as much to be thankful for. The draft gives a chance to all those unfortunate teams who need some extra help in the off-season, so let's cover what's going to be on each team's wish list and who we can expect to end up where.

The draft lottery happens on May 30th, so I’ll be sorting the picks by who is most likely to have that spot. Positions will obviously change as all the ping-pong balls fall, but each team’s needs will remain the same regardless of their position.

#1 Pick – Charlotte Bobcats

The Bobcats just posted a record for the lowest winning percentage in NBA history, and despite whispers of tanking, they were doomed to fail from the start. An undersized set of talented guards in Gerald Henderson, D.J. Augustin and rookie Kemba Walker were surrounded by the continually underwhelming forwards Tyrus Thomas and Corey Maggette, and Byron Mullens and Bismack Biyombo rounded them out at centre. They finished last for both offensive and defensive ratings for the entire league, so they will be targeting the best talent they can find. Considering three of their best players are guards, I would expect a big man to be the choice but finding the best player available will be their goal. If they land the number one pick, Anthony Davis is close to a sure thing.

Expected Pick – Anthony Davis

#2 Pick – Washington Wizards

The Wizards look great going forward having nabbed the solid Nene Hilario from the Denver Nuggets, rounding out a core of John Wall, Jordan Crawford and Andray Blatche. While some ego-management will be needed to keep everyone in check, the talent is there to produce wins. The team is fairly well rounded position-wise, but the team is lacking an impact player at SF and SG. I would expect them to take the best talent available, with a slight look towards defence.

Expected Pick – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal

#3 Pick – Cleveland Cavaliers

Even though they came away with the best player from last year’s draft, but the Cavaliers aren’t out of the woods yet. With the leftovers of the LeBron era (Antawn Jamison, Anthony Parker, etc.) still taking contracts and minutes from younger players, they have some work to do. The benefit to this is that every position other than PG (and possibly PF, based on your opinion of Sideshow Bob Varejao) needs to be filled for the future and this allows them to take the best player left. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could learn a thing or two from Anthony Parker, as they play similar games, but don’t be surprised if they scoop up one of the premier big men.

Expected Pick – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal, Thomas Robinson

#4 Pick – New Orleans

Despite an extremely underwhelming season, the Hornets have a decent core of players to work with going forward. The Hornets have a balanced collection of players across the board, but no real standouts other than Eric Gordon. It looks like they will either try to trade down to grab a PG, or just pick the best player available. Scoring the ball was their biggest issue, and a player such as Bradley Beal would be a good fit for them if he can continue to improve the flashes of elite playmaking he showed in college. Don’t expect Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to be picked by them as they have two similar players in Al-Farouq Aminu and Trevor Ariza.

Expected Pick – Bradley Beal, Andre Drummond

#5 Pick – Sacramento Kings

The Kings have been adding draft picks with lots of talent over the last few years but they just can’t seem to keep their heads on their shoulders. Tyreke Evans has turned from a PG with no playmaking to a SF with a poor shot, Jimmer Fredette spiraled out of control late this season and DeMacrus Cousins keeps losing his cool over nothing. The priority for the Kings should be to grab a stable player who can bring some consistency to the team. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist would fit this role perfectly if he slips here, but he appears to be going earlier. If this happens, expect them to take the last remaining player between Drummond, Robinson and Beal.

Expected Pick – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Andre Drummond

#6 Pick – Portland Trailblazers (from New Jersey)

From this point forward the picks get real hazy, assuming the 5 players mentioned above have been taken already. Since so many of the players will be of similar caliber, teams will be trying to find players to fit a system or players they think have long-term potential. Portland is receiving New Jersey’s pick from the Gerald Wallace trade, so expect them to pick for position. Marcus Camby is gone and the team needs a new center, and with this year’s glut of big men, I would expect a big man to get picked.

Expected Pick – Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, or any player who falls from the top 5 picks

#7 Pick – Golden State Warriors (Pick goes to Utah Jazz if it falls out of top 7)

I'll make this pick for Golden State rather than Utah, odds are the pick will end up in the top 7. After acquiring Andrew Bogut, while still being able to keep David Lee, the Warriors have a core of passing big men to go with Steph Curry. Surprisingly, the Warriors are looking for someone to shoot the ball and play some defense alongside Klay Thompson. At first glance, Harrison Barnes seems like a great fit for the SF position as he won't be depended on often to create his own shot and can focus on the defensive side of the court, two of his strengths.

Expected Pick - Harrison Barnes

#8 Pick - Toronto Raptors

With potential all-star Andrea Bargnani returning from injury and FIBA under-19 standout Jonas Valuncias hopping the pond the Raptors seem to have a pair of big men to build around, without mentioning Amir Johnson and Ed Davis off the bench. Toronto's real improvement needs to come with scoring effectively, as Dwayne Casey's arrival improved the defense by a fair margin. Casey has no hesitation punishing players who don't put the effort in, and Terrence Jones needs a tight leash to keep effective. It seems like a great fit for both, as the Raptors need a skilled forward to finish at the rim and Jones needs a coach who will keep him on point all season.

Expected Pick - Terrence Jones

#9 Pick - Detroit Pistons

With a troupe of combo guards in Ben Gordon, Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey, Detroit will be happy to see the amount of big men expected to be picked in the top 10 this year. Look for them to pick the best player that will fall to them here, because post players like Charlie Villanueva, Jonas Jerebko haven't been very impressive. Recent picks Greg Monroe and Brandon Knight showed some flashes last season and could use either Jared Sullinger or Perry Jones on their side next season and in the next few seasons.

Expected Pick - Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones

#10 Pick - New Orleans Hornets (from Minnesota Timberwolves)

New general manager Dell Demps has done well to secure two picks in the lottery this year and should be rewarded, as this is one of the deeper draft classes in awhile. Demps knows the draft well, so don't expect him to bite on Final Four breakout star Jeremy Lamb (especially with Eric Gordon in the same position). The pick will be about talent at this point so if any players above aren't picked yet, expect them to go first. Otherwise, both Kendall Marshall and Damian Lillard look like players the Hornets would be interested in, with a lean towards Marshall and his ridiculous assist rates.

Expected Pick - Kendall Marshall, Damian Lillard

#11 Pick - Portland Trailblazers

With a second lottery pick, the trailblazers continue with their tradition of having a big impact on the draft layout. If they don't get the big man they need with their first pick, they will definitely grab one like Tyler Zeller or John Henson. If they've secured a big man with the first pick, it gives them some leeway with their second, allowing them to take a gamble on Jeremy Lamb or a similar player.

Expected Pick - Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Jeremy Lamb

#12 Pick - Milwaukee Bucks

The Andrew Bogut for Monta Ellis trade leaves the Bucks with the most exciting team they've ever seen - whether that translates to any wins remains to be seen. What is known is that shooting and playmaking should be secured so long as both are in town. Ersan Ilyasova has come out of nowhere to be a major factor for this team, but the Bogut trade has left a big gap in the middle. Look for them to replace this position with one of the big men that will inevitably slide to them here.

Expected Pick - John Henson, Tyler Zeller

#13 Pick - Phoenix Suns

After the first time missing the playoffs in the Nash era, the Suns aren't sure whether he will be returning next season. Regardless of whether or not he does stick around, plans need to be made to replace him and point guards should be available at this pick. This isn't the biggest factor, seeing as almost all positions on the team need reinforcing - other than center where the Polish Hammer Gortat resides.

Expected Pick - Jeremy Lamb, Kendall Marshall, Damian Lillard

#14 Pick - Houston Rockets

Missing the playoffs with a winning record is a painful this do to, but it does come with the reward of getting a lottery pick. The Rockets should be able to grab an impact player at this point, and will most likely continue their habit of taking the best player available. The team is balanced across the board, but could use some more size off the bench beside Scola and Dalembert. Some of the best statistical analysis in the league is done by the Rockets, so they might get excited by Kendall Marshall's freakish passing ability.

Expected Pick - John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Kendall Marshall

Those are the lottery picks this year and players like Austin Rivers, Terrence Ross, Quincy Miller and Marquis Teague could definitely make the jump into the top 14. Only one month until draft day, so start writing up your wishlist and dreaming of Santa David Stern coming down the chimney.

(Also, no David Kahn insanity picks this year!)
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