Conference Finals Preview: Underdog Suns and the Clicking Celtics

The NBA landscape seemed to change with the Game 6 Celtics win.

Mike Brown is probably going to be out of a job, Lebron might have just played his last game as a Cavalier and the City of Cleveland is going to continue to keep the 'No Championships' streak alive, after losing their best chance in a decade.

The game Thursday night had big implications for the reigning MVP and Cleveland, but it's only one wave in a storm compared to the rest of the playoffs. The Celtics winning still leaves the Magic and the Lakers as the two clear front runners to end up in the Finals, but the general theme of the playoffs has changed now.

Before, people were watching these playoffs to see if this was Lebron's year and if Shaq could get his fifth before Kobe did.

Now, it's about the Celtics fighting against their closing window and whether or not the Lakers can be stopped this year.

Eastern Conference Finals: Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics

This series is a tough one to call. All season the Magic have consistently been the better team, and they haven't showed any cracks this postseason in either their ability to score or defend. On the other side, the Celtics have been rolling, with their offense being nicely spread out over their talent and their defense as stifling as always.
Rajon Rondo has continued his improvement throughout the first two series and the Magic don't have any answers for him (Does anyone have an answer for this guy? How do you defend him?) but I still feel like the Magic's great ball movement and ability to space the floor will overcome the Celtics in the end. Doc Rivers will need to focus on keeping the team's turnovers down and keeping the bench involved for the Big 3 to have another shot at a title.
Prediction: Magic in 7

Western Conference Finals: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns

No matter how I break this down, it seems like the Lakers size is going to be the dominant factor in this series. Unlike the previous two series, Bynum won't be the main problem in the paint, but rather it will be Lamar Odom's ability to be big and still remain mobile that will hurt the Suns. Bynum will most see his minutes drop to around twenty minutes, as Odom will be used to defend Frye all around the perimeter.
Combine that with Ron Artest having his first true defensive assignment since Durant in Richardson and Gasol's massive mental edge on Stoudemire, and the Lakers should run away with this. Some people will say that Derek Fisher will get played like a fiddle by Nash and while this might happen, it won't be enough to turn the tide. Watch for Grant Hill's sudden change into super defender come to a halt against the Mamba.
Prediction: Lakers in 6

Image courtesy of Doc Funk

Game 2 Preview: Hawks vs. Magic, or Isolation vs. the 3-Ball

Playoff basketball is a much different beast than the regular season brand of basketball. Veterans playing +40 minutes a game, stadiums full of fans, final scores being under 100 and lots of other weird things we don't see when no one really cares during the first 82 games. All of these things help teams win, you can see most of the elite teams (see: Spurs, Lakers, Celtics) all use these tactics to give themselves a better chance at winning.

One thing that we are used seeing in the regular season that really doesn't work come playoff time is the isolation offense. It was the offense that the Mavericks used when they lost as a #1 seed, and it's the offense that gave the Hawks their biggest playoff loss a few days ago in game one.

The offense that the Magic use focuses on two things - 3 pointers (usually from the corner) and shots at the rim (usually dunks.) The Spurs focus on getting these types of shots, the triangle offense tends to result in shots at the basket and open threes, and clearly it has been working for these teams.

This series won't come down to the players in the end, the coaching and systems will decide how the cards fall. Orlando's ball movement allows the whole team to get involved, rather than letting their individual talents decide the fate of the team. Look for the Magic to win again tonight, and in a big way.

Game One Impressions: Boston clashes with Miami, 'Melo Drops 40 and Lakers Roll

This weekend contained the first game for all eight of the series, and other than a few early blowouts, you couldn't ask for a better set of first games. The home team won in all but one game, experience paid off and the defense and intensity were cranked up the whole time. So it was pretty much exactly what everyone was expecting, right?

Eastern Conference

Clevland vs Chicago
This game was a kind of enigma last night, the score was often close but the game never really was. Rose caused issues with his athleticism and Noah refused to quit, but Lebron and Mike Brown were in control the entire game. Chicago never really had a hope and I would expect the entire series to have a similar tone. Shaq returned in this game and showed once again that when he is inspired he can be an effective part of a team, providing efficient scoring in the paint and clogging up the lane on defense.

Orlando vs Charlotte
Charlotte was really able to show their strengths in this game, even though the ended up losing. Despite being down up to twenty points at times, Larry Brown constantly had them focused on the next play and chipping away at the lead. This team just refuses to ever go away, which makes them a big threat. Jameer Nelson caught fire early, shooting and getting to the hole on his way to posting 24 in the first half and 32 overall, and stepped up as the primary shooter this game after Vince and Dwight were cold early. Charlotte will have a chance in this series with their defense and Orlando's dependence on shooters, but it's east to see that Orlando is the more talented and consistently strong team.

Atlanta vs Milwaukee
Milwaukee continued to try and play a different style of basketball without Bogut available, using a defense similar to OKC's swarming, hectic defense against post players. Just like what happened in the Lakers game, this left the paint vulnerable so that Josh Smith, Al Horford and even Mo Evans were able to score down low with ease. Jennings scored 34 in the match and Salmons put in 16, but it seemed like nearly every offensive play came with the ball in one of their hands. It's a shame that Bogut went down, but as expected the rest of this team won't be able to hold up against the athletic and skilled Hawks.

Boston vs. Miami
An unlikely hero arose in this game when Tony Allen was stuck playing defense on Wade in the first frame. After that, Allen defended Wade nearly the whole way through and did an excellent job of slowing him down, which was a big part of this win. The biggest surprise of this game came when Paul Pierce fell out of bounds after some tough defense by Haslem and Richardson. Pierce appeared injured and after the trainers got to him, he was surrounded by KG and Glen Davis. Richardson approached Pierce - most likely to check if he wasn't injured - and KG didn't like that idea, so he elbowed him in the head. After the scuffle settled, KG was suspended from game two which should come as no surprise if you've been paying attention to your suspensions. Miami should have a good chance to attack this Boston team in game 2, Garnett was a big reason that Boston was so strong in the first game.


Western Conference

Los Angeles vs Oklahoma City
You hear it every year, two things win championships - defense and experience - and after game one of this series, you can see why the Lakers come in as favorites again. The Lakers shook off all that regular season rust and slowed the game down to a deliberate pace, holding OKC to 13 in the first quarter with their strong side defense. Durant was noticeably bothered by some combination of the playoff jitters, the big LA lights and a constant barrage of elbows courtesy of Kobe and Ron-Ron. The big story of the game was really Bynum's return. He stepped right back into his old role, clogging the paint and protecting the rim while generating easy buckets on the other end with good post moves and strong screens. Between the 14 feet of Gasol and Bynum, most teams in the West once again seem ill-equipped to defend the paint.


Dallas vs San Antonio
In one of the most exciting games of the weekend, Nowitzki came out to play in this one, dropping 36 points on a ridiculous shooting night of 12-14 form the field and 12-12 from the line. The rest of the Mavs didn't disappoint either, as Jason Kidd, Caron Butler, Shawn Marion and Brendan Haywood all had solid games on both ends of the court. San Antonio's big three showed signs of being able to carry the team, but Parker was noticeably not himself and even with Duncan and Ginobli playing at a high level one of either Hill or Jefferson will need to step up for this team to win.

Phoenix vs Portland
This game surprised me the most out of any game, but Portland's ability to control the pace of the game ended up taking all the wind out of Phoenix's sails. Phoenix was never really able to get out and run, Nate McMillan had his team focused and ready to slow the league's best offense. Andre Miller showed that his type of game is built for the playoffs (tough D and scoring at the rim), and Lamarcus Aldridge was more aggressive than I've ever seen him before, taking twenty shots while Roy is out. Phoenix made a late run of it and nearly slipped the game into overtime with a Nash 3-pt attempt, but for some reason I still expect Phoenix to control this series. Hopefully this game can just become a small road-bump in the Suns playoff drive.

Denver vs Utah
On the surface it comes as a surprise that this was the highest scoring game of the weekend, but when you look into things, it becomes pretty obvious. Between the injured Kirilenko, the slowed Kenyon Martin and the fiery and inspired pair of stars in Carmelo and Deron Williams, the scoreboards were lit up all night. Unlike most other games, this one was much closer than the final score showed as Denver really only pulled away in the fourth quarter after JR Smith began to hit shots. Okur injured his Achilles tendon, leaving him unable to compete during this year's playoffs. It was reported that he was seen with tears in his eyes post-game and it's a sad story for both Okur and the Jazz, as both of their playoff hopes are essentially done after this news.

Playoff Predictions: Round One

Just in time for the first game (which is probably on right now), here are the Balding Spalding first playoff predictions. It's been a long year of watching basketball and it all comes down to this for a lot of teams. You've got some older teams trying to grab another one before the window closes (San Antonio, Boston, Phoenix), some young teams looking to back up their good regular seasons with some playoff success (OKC, Milwaukee) and the usual suspects back again to try at the championship (Clevland, Orlando, Dallas). After it all, you've got lots of reasons to root for each team and lots of teams who will be pushing hard to keep things alive until June.


Alright, lets keep these short and sweet. Based on some stats, some intuition and a whole lot of guesswork, I've come upon my first round predictions and hopefully they don't disappoint. Up first is the Eastern Conference, and the team with home court advantage is on the left side as we go along.

East

Clevland vs Chicago: Clevland in 4

Lebron and co. won't be taking it easy on Chicago at any point in this series. This year the talk about Lebron has usually centered around his dominating play and how he has established himself as the best player in the game, but what went relatively unnoticed is Lebron's changed demeanor. All year he has been steely in his determination, never really showing any cracks all year. While Rose will cause problems for them and Joakim Noah would rather lose his hair than this series, Lebron has had this team in win-mode all year and I won't expect any different in this series.

Orlando vs Charlotte: Orlando in 5

Charlotte has been the favored upset pick, as they have the 1st overall defensive efficiency and Orlando has the leagues 2nd best offensive efficiency. I understand the ideas behind the 'defense wins championships' mantra, but this Magic team is no chump on the defense and rebounding ballots, especially with their center about to win his second consecutive DPOY award. The Bobcats won't be able to increase their offense as much as Orlando will be able to tighten up their defense, so Charlotte will only be able to take game 3 or 4 at home before being finished off by the Magic.

Atlanta vs Milwaukee: Atlanta in 6

I feel this match-up is a lot closer than most people think, but it's still not very close in the end. If the Big Aussie was still around I might even favor this prototypical Skiles team, but without him Horford and Smith will be too much on the boards to handle. Milwaukee might be able to make things interesting by going a bit smaller and shooting on the Hawks, but Horford has shown this year that he can defend out to the 3-pt line and Smith covers too much ground to make this very effective. This long, athletic and balanced Atlanta team will tighten up in the first round but looks for trouble past this round.

Boston vs Miami: Miami in 7

Boston had one of the worst finishes of any of the playoff teams, going 3-7 over their last ten heading into the playoffs. This partly was due to Doc Rivers resting most of his starters in the last month, but I still don't feel well about the Celtics coming into these playoffs. None of the Big 3 have looked like themselves for long this year and because of this, Rondo has stepped up and become the focal piece of their team. I am an avid Rondo supporter, but he hasn't had this big of a load put on him in the playoffs before and it may not work well. The other obvious issue will be defending Wade but Boston's biggest strength is their pick-and-roll defense, so expect Haslem and Beasley to play a big role hitting 15-18 footers from the corner rather than the usual Wade attack.

West

Los Angeles vs Oklahoma City: Los Angeles in 6

The Lakers have some things to worry about in this match up, but nothing the champs can't handle. The Durantula's skinny frame is going to take a beating against Ron-Ron, and while the 2-3 days rest each game will help this, another issue arises. Oklahoma doesn't really have any outside shooters in their starting line-up past Jeff Green, which means that the Lakers will be able to effectively employ their strong-side overload defense. Durant will be played tightly by Artest all series, and the Lakers will be able to help without any repercussions from the 3-pt line. It also helps that Gasol will be defended by Ibaka and Collison most of the series.

Dallas vs San Antonio: Dallas in 7

Despite being a 2 vs 7 match-up, I think this should be the closest series in the first round (other than maybe Boston-Miami). The Spurs have been inconsistent all year, but have experience and know how to tighten up when it matters. The Mavs have been consistently excellent all year, but are known to crumble under pressure and tend to unravel with the pressure on. This series will be complicated and very well-coached, but two match-ups will swing the battle - Nowitzki vs. Duncan and Butler vs. Ginobli.

Phoenix vs Portland: Pheonix in 6

Portland had some bad news this week, Brandon Roy will be having surgery on his knee which will mean his misses at least the first two playoff games and possibly more. Phoenix has been one of the NBA's best home teams this year, posting a 32-9 record at the US Airways Center. Portland has been a good road team but the Suns will come out shooting hot and without Roy, his team will have a very tough time scoring enough to keep up. I like McMillan with regards to coaching and Camby could average 20+ boards in this series, but Portland is this and Gentry is gonna run them into the ground.

Denver vs Utah: Denver in 7

This should be an interesting series, and the one I am most excited to watch. Both of these teams mean serious business, they have been too close in the past and want to win badly for their coaches (Karl is battling throat cancer and Sloan is battling... Father Time) before their time in the NBA is up. It was announced yesterday the AK-47 will miss the series, but Kenyon Martin looked slow and ineffective in his last few games after coming back from an injury. These two should problems should end up being a wash for the two teams, but the issue will be who Utah now uses to defend Carmelo. They will most likely rotate between CJ Miles and Korver, so expect 'Melo to drop a few 40 point games.

Slow Blogging Days and a Beautiful Outlet

There won't be much being posted for the rest of this week, I'm working on three big posts to finish out the season with, (Awards, Yearbook and Playoff Picture) so you can expect those to come out in the next week or two.

In the meantime, check out this (Sorry, can`t embed ESPN videos) play from the Nuggets - Timberwolves game the other night. It happens at the :30 second mark, Nene gets an off-balance rebound and throws a three quarter court outlet pass while falling backwards. For a guy who is known for playing like a bull in a china shop, it`s a really hard pass to make and a good basketball play that goes unnoticed a lot of the time.